AS the Brexit row has raged, Project Fear economists have fallen over themselves to prophesise doom and gloom.
Well, guess what? The UK economy grew by a healthy 0.3 per cent in July — way above expectations, seeing off fears of recession.
Wages are booming and unemployment remains close to an all-time low.
Despite the Westminster chaos, the Pound has just hit a six-week high against the euro — with the German economy, not Britain, succumbing to a slump.
Since we voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, the UK economy has shown serious resilience against a constant drumbeat of media negativity.
The Treasury’s pre-Referendum scaremongering — a Brexit vote would spark “an immediate and profound economic shock” — was proved laughably wrong.
The British economy stood firm, recording solid growth, high employment and strong public finances.
The ongoing US-China trade row means today’s global environment is tougher.
But the UK’s services sector — four-fifths of our economy — drove July’s better-than- expected growth, expanding 0.3 per cent.
Since we voted to leave the EU in June 2016, the UK economy has shown serious resilience against a constant drumbeat of media negativity.
Manufacturing grew 0.3 per cent too, with construction doing even better — up 0.5 per cent.
A further boost is expected when the August data is published, as UK car makers operated last month, contrary to usual practice, having brought their annual shutdown forward for the original Brexit date in March.
Investment from overseas into the UK totalled £1,480trillion at the end of 2018 — more than Germany and France combined.
During the first seven months of this year, our tech companies secured a record £5.5billion in foreign backing — more per head of population than the US.
Remainer economists, desperate to see Brexit Britain fail, are seeing their doom-monger forecasts disproved.
Lurid pre-Referendum warnings that 75,000 City jobs would go if we voted Leave have been exposed as nonsense.
Over the summer, staff moved into Goldman Sachs’ new European Headquarters — in London, of course. Bigger than 26 football pitches, it has room for 6,000 staff.
BREXIT BLOCKERS
It’s now clear that, far from harming the Square Mile, Brexit will help London cement its place as the world’s leading financial hub.
Now the Project Fear merchants issue blood-curdling warnings against a No Deal Brexit, making it impossible for Boris Johnson to negotiate with Brussels.
Ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond says leaving against the EU’s wishes would cost Britain £90billion — equivalent to a whopping four per cent of our annual GDP — doing damage “equivalent to the 2008 financial crash”.
Spreadsheet Phil’s meltdown scenario, based on those same 2016 Treasury forecasts, lacks all credibility.
EU trade accounts for barely a tenth of the UK economy. Just eight per cent of our firms do business with the 27-member bloc.
The idea Brexit would cause a shock equal to the largest peace-time slowdown in a century, when the entire world economy slumped, is absurd.
No Deal is constantly demonised by those who “respect the Referendum result” but are really Brexit-blockers. Preparations have been made on all sides to minimise any disruption.
Agreements have been struck so exports will keep flowing and planes will fly.
Phone roaming charges won’t change, as the big telecom outfits have now confirmed.
THE FUTURE ISN'T WITHOUT DANGER
Trade agreements with our most important global customers have been agreed or are in the works.
What the doom-mongers don’t mention is that No Deal could mean lower prices for food and consumer goods such as clothing and footwear if the UK drops high tariffs on imports from outside the EU which, for now, Brussels forces us to impose.
It is rarely acknowledged that the Irish government has admitted there won’t be new physical infrastructure in sensitive locations, and customs checks can happen away from the Irish border.
When did you last hear on the TV news that UK exports to the EU have fallen from 60 per cent of goods we sold abroad 20 years ago to just 46 per cent now — despite the much-vaunted single market and customs union it would apparently be so disastrous to leave?
And why are we never told UK trade outside the EU is now not only the majority of our trade, but is fast-growing, produces a surplus and is conducted largely under World Trade Organisation rules?
Of course the future is not without danger. Indeed, there is a huge great threat on the horizon that could smash this prosperity to smithereens.
And that is a hard-Left Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn, who this week pledged to make it easier for workers to strike, threatening a return to the dark days of the 1970s.
Polling from Financial News suggests City investors would rather a No Deal Brexit than Corbyn taking over as Prime Minister — and rightly so.
Speaking to his trade union paymasters at the TUC on Tuesday, this Magic Grandpa pledged to sweep aside long-standing anti-strike rules, opening the floodgates to widespread industrial action.
INDUSTRIAL ACTION
A Corbyn government would cause havoc — threatening a return to the Britain of my childhood, when we ended up being bailed out, going “cap in hand” to the International Monetary Fund.
The damage he would inflict would be catastrophic. What forward-thinking firm would want to invest in a country where the government would take ten per cent of your company if you happen to be successful enough to employ more than 250 people?
That’s what Corbyn and his Marxist dreamers are planning.
And the wind in their sails blows hard, thanks not to their appeal on the doorstep — two thirds of Brits think him indecisive and incompetent, according to a recent YouGov poll.
No, Comrade Corbyn has been helped by the Remainer corporate establishment, in turn assisted by gloomy Remainer economists and an overwhelmingly Remainer media class, which has railed against a genuine Brexit.
It’s now threatening to overturn the 2016 Referendum result altogether. That would mean thwarting Prime Minister Boris Johnson, even if he can only offer No Deal, which could easily result in Corbyn entering No10.
But any No Deal damage would be minimal and temporary. Recovering from a profligate and spiteful Corbyn administration could take a quarter century or more.
- Liam Halligan is co-author of Clean Brexit.
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