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This trade deadline will be defined by how far some teams are willing to go such as the:
Washington Nationals
Even playing in the tepid NL East, the Nationals have accepted that they need to sell. But to what extent? As an NL executive from a buying team said, “They just don’t have enough good players in the majors and minors. How much do they want to reorganize and reboot this whole thing?”
They are 71-88 since winning the 2019 World Series, including 45-54 this year through Monday. But they do have the title to provide cover to do the right thing, which is to restructure if not rebuild. They owe five years at $175 million (with lots of deferrals) to the injury-prone Stephen Strasburg, who has hardly pitched the first two years of his $245 million contract and is now due for season-ending surgery. They owe three years at $82 million (with small deferrals) to Patrick Corbin, whose strikeout rate is way down and ERA is up to an NL-worst 5.71. Max Scherzer, whose seven-year free-agent pact (perhaps the best ever for a team), ends this season, but has $15 million annually due him from 2022-2028 via his deferrals.
Those three starters keyed the Nats’ title, but now serve as financial impediments to Washington potentially signing Trea Turner, a free agent after next season, and/or Juan Soto, who will be free after his age-25 season in 2024.
So the Nats will almost certainly deal walk-year relievers Brad Hand (three blown saves in his last five appearances) and Daniel Hudson (no walks and 23 strikeouts in his last 12). Kyle Schwarber (hamstring) is still a few weeks from a return, but also can be a free agent after the season and a team might gamble to get the last six-ish weeks (the Yanks have always been intrigued).
But the big questions are about Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer, who did not start Saturday due to triceps discomfort, is more likely to be dealt. He has 10-and-five rights, so he can steer himself where he wants. The Dodgers and Padres are viewed to be among the suitors.
As for Turner, do the Nats act now before a free-agent market that even with Francisco Lindor signing with the Mets still has Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and the on-the-block Trevor Story? Turner possesses speed, power, batting average and strong defensive metrics; only Fernando Tatis Jr. has more Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs) for 2020-21 than Turner, who through 696 career games had a statistical comp in the Derek Jeter realm — Turner’s slash line was .300/.355/.486 with an .841 OPS and 21.3 WAR, Jeter’s was .318/.389/.564 with an .855 OPS and 19.4 WAR to end that year. Jeter played at 25 that year, Turner is 28.
Still, Turner should top the Yankees’ list as the kind of quick-twitch all-around player to crave. They should be ambitious about pursuing him now because in the offseason clubs with shortstops now, but free agents then, such as the Dodgers and Giants, could become more aggressive. Do the Nats believe this is just a down year for Gleyber Torres (who can’t be a free agent until after 2024) and take him plus prospects for Turner?
There is a natural pipeline for dialogue — Aaron Boone’s dad, Bob, is a vice president and senior adviser to GM Mike Rizzo.
Minnesota Twins
Nelson Cruz is gone to the Rays already and opposing talent evaluators like the Twins’ return of Joe Ryan and Drew Stotman to address pitching needs. Michael Pineda, in his walk year, pitched well (six innings, two runs, no walks, six whiffs) Monday, landing his key slider consistently in what likely was his final Minnesota start. The Mets are among those looking at rotation help. But the most compelling figure in Minnesota is Jose Berrios.
Both he and injured center fielder Byron Buxton can be free agents after next season. The Twins are listening, but have set high return values because they want to try to contend next year, see Berrios and Buxton helping in the cause and both still retaining value until next July if the team does not contend. Here is a thought: If the Mets were willing to take on the $50 million owed Josh Donaldson in 2022-23, how much (if at all) would that lower the ask on Berrios? Like the Nats with Turner, I would think in a starter-desperate market the Twins would do nothing to minimize a return on Berrios.
The Twins almost certainly were going to move strike-throwing closer Taylor Rogers, but that might have to wait until the offseason as he headed to the IL with finger sprain incurred Monday.
The Yanks have had interest in Max Kepler and perhaps fellow outfielders Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach. Would Minnesota use its depth in lefty bats to get into Yankee pitching prospect inventory?
Chicago Cubs
They got the easier stuff done quickly with trades of walk-year outfielder Joc Pederson to Atlanta and setup man Andrew Chafin to Oakland — though it should be mentioned Chafin had the 10th lowest OPS against lefties at .447 and 16th against righties at .473 (minimum 60 plate appearances vs. both sides). The Yanks tried for Chafin.
Zach Davies is another starter who will get attention from those seeking rotation depth. Craig Kimbrel, who has a $16 million 2022 option, is viewed as the most desirable reliever in the market. Chicago also has other desirable setup men such as Ryan Tepera.
And how much from the championship core of Javy Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo do the Cubs move? Bryant is the most likely to go. But that all three are in their walk years, make good money and perhaps are more famous than desirable in the marketplace which will create a challenge for Chicago to garner strong returns. Walk-year position players have become a harder and harder sell for top prospects at the trade deadline. Can the Cubs combine, say, Rizzo and Kimbrel to a club such as the Red Sox to try to increase the return?
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