The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we look at which team is most likely to score first, based on the sports betting odds and lines at BetMGM for Super Bowl LIV.
Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.
Which team will record the first score of Super Bowl LIV? (Including overtime, conversions do not count)
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:40 p.m. ET.
With both the 49ers (-106) and Chiefs (-115) averaging at least 28 points per contest to rank among the league’s top-five scoring offenses during the regular season, and the game’s Over/Under total being set at 54.5, we’d best start right from the beginning.
Both the 49ers and Chiefs rank among the league’s best in terms of first-quarter scoring, with San Francisco averaging 6.7 points (third overall, including the postseason) and Kansas City averaging 5.4 first-quarter points per game (10th).
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Getting even more specific, the 49ers and Chiefs also ranked among the league’s best in terms of first-drive scores during the regular season. The Niners scoring on 10 of their 16 opening possessions (six touchdowns and four field goals). The Chiefs scored on nine of 16 opening drives (seven TDs and two field goals). The 49ers scored a first-quarter TD in each of their two NFC playoff games, with one coming on the opening possession. The Chiefs have scored a total of seven first-quarter points in their two playoff contests with no opening-possession points.
Defensively, both Big Game combatants owned top-10 scoring defenses during the regular season. The Chiefs allowed 19.3 points per game to rank a shade higher than the Niners (19.4). During the playoffs, Kansas City is allowing an average of 25.5 points while the boys from the Bay Area have limited foes to 15 points per outing.
(Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports)
In the first quarter this season (including the playoffs), the Niners are allowing 4.1 points per contest (11th-fewest in the league) while the Chiefs are surrendering 6.2 (28th). In its two playoff contests, the Chiefs have been outscored 31-7 in the first quarter while San Francisco owns a 14-7 advantage.
On opening defensive possessions, the Chiefs have surrendered scores in 10 of 18 games, allowing six TDs and four field goals. The Niners, meanwhile, have given up points on only six of 18 opening possessions (four TDs and two FGs) for the opposing offense.
Our best bet:49ers (-106)
Going by the just-digested numbers, we have to give the edge to the Niners, who not only have been more productive offensively early in games – a nod to some strong opening scripts by head coach Kyle Shanahan, arguably the game’s best play-caller – but they have been stingier defensively as well, particularly in the postseason. The Chiefs have dug themselves early-double-digit deficits in each of their two contests.
Strangely, though, Kansas City is the slight favorite here, with bettors having to pay a little more juice when siding with the formidable offensive duo of QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.
Everything considered, however, it’s not wise to wager too much either way on this prop as the winning side may simply be determined by the coin toss and which team takes possession first.
Still, if you must have action here, play the percentages and give the nod to the Niners striking first on the scoreboard in South Beach.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
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