The more effectively the Yankees answer the bulk of their great concerns, the more egregiously their lone remaining problem stands.
Too many strikeouts on offense? They rank far better in the American League than last year.
A lineup that tilts too far to the right? They’re hitting righty pitching more successfully than lefty pitching (and raking against both).
An untested and unproven manager? While October presents the extremely important final exams, Aaron Boone has to date aced a most challenging regular season.
A shaky starting rotation, however? Like “Saturday Night Live’s” girl you wish you hadn’t started a conversation with at a party, the Yankees just can’t escape it.
They head out West for nine games, starting Tuesday night in Oakland against the A’s, owning a best-in-baseball 15-4 record in August — since they stunningly failed to add any pitching at the July 31 trade deadline — despite posting a 5.17 ERA, including 4.85 by their starting pitchers.
We can wager a nice amount of money that the Astros will go with Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley — quite likely in that order — to start their AL Division Series. If the Astros are Monica on “Friends,” fully prepared and impressively fastidious, the Yankees are Phoebe, living on the edge and making it up as they go along.
As a drill, one that they had best be doing themselves, let’s pretend that the Yankees couldn’t board their flight to San Francisco without submitting their ALDS starting rotation and pitching roster, guessing on the good health or lack thereof of arms currently on the injured list. Here’s how I would map it out generally, without knowing the identity of the opponent:
Game 1: Masahiro Tanaka. No, neither the Indians nor the Blue Jays, the clubs he has defeated with relative ease in his last two starts, carry an elite offense. Nevertheless, I’m sold on his revival and his track record, particularly in the postseason. He also has permitted the fewest home runs per nine innings (1.5) of the Yankees starters.
Game 2: Domingo German. Brian Cashman has essentially declared that German — who will start Tuesday night at Oakland Coliseum to kick off the road trip — can run free come October, his innings limit managed prior to that. Still, he’ll be making his postseason debut, so if he falters, the bullpen can go pedal to the metal knowing an off day awaits them.
Game 3: Luis Severino. Already, we have entered the danger zone. What if he can give only, say, 65 to 70 pitches? What if he just has lost a step after missing the bulk of the season with right shoulder and lat issues? These risks simply must be assumed against the potential reward of a strong outing.
Game 4: Chad Green, followed by James Paxton. How can you not be alarmed by Paxton’s 11.05 ERA in the first inning? Wouldn’t his chances of success out of the gate improve by having him avoid the top of the order the first time through? The Yankees probably would test this idea in Paxton’s final regular-season turn or two.
Bullpen First Tier: Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino joining Green. The easy choices.
Bullpen Second Tier: Dellin Betances. Giving the big fella his own tier just to ensure he can make it back to his old self after spending the entire season alongside Severino on the IL.
Bullpen Third Tier: Deivi Garcia and CC Sabathia. Sure, pair up the youngest and oldest guys, both of whom can miss some bats. The 20-year-old Garcia has shown enough at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to earn a September audition for prime time. And the 39-year-old Sabathia gets the nod over his fellow veteran J.A. Happ because he has allowed less hard contact and, well, because he’s Sabathia.
Could you turn to a retiring Sabathia to go after, say, a Michael Brantley, the way Joe Torre asked a running-on-fumes David Cone to retire Mike Piazza in 2000 World Series Game 4? Worth a shot, I’d say, as we try to piece together a puzzle that still looks awfully confusing with time running out.
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