For ages, the Lions have talked about becoming a run-first offense. It seems like a narrative redrafted each offseason, one that never materializes on the field.
It had become such an annual trope that it was easily ignored by fantasy owners, who would draft the Detroit passing game and skip past whoever the primary running back might be in any given year.
In 2015, the Lions passed more than any other team. In 2016, they were third in pass plays, they were second in 2017.
But then defensive-minded Matt Patricia landed the coaching gig in 2018. And they drafted Kerryon Johnson the same offseason.
In their first year under Patricia, with LeGarrette Blount and the rookie Johnson splitting the load, the Lions dropped to the middle of the pack in passing preference (14th). Thus far this season, they rank 18th in passing plays run.
Then, Johnson was lost to the IR with a knee injury two weeks ago. The allegiance to the run had many fantasy minds thinking Ty Johnson would step in to fill that role, perhaps sharing some of the passing-down work with others. Well, he did provide some of the fill-in duties last week, but he split it with a lot more than just a passing-down option.
Tra Carson got more carries than Ty Johnson. Paul Perkins got in the mix. And J.D. McKissic got some snaps. And none were effective against a Giants defense that hasn’t put the brakes on offenses this year.
The offense was effective through the air, with Matthew Stafford having his most efficient game — 342 yards, three touchdowns and one interception with a 78.1 percent completion percentage and 129 QB rating, both season highs. This came after a four-TD, 364-yard game against the Vikings the week before, when Kerryon left after just five carries.
So, it seems, it isn’t Ty Johnson or any other backup Lions running back who will see the biggest fantasy boost, it is the Detroit passing game. Stafford currently ranks ninth in fantasy points per game among QBs, and eighth in average points per game.
Expect those numbers to rise. And that ascent will get bump this week against the Raiders. Oakland has given up at least two passing TDs in every game but two, and its yielded at least three TD passes in four of seven games. Quarterbacks average 23.7 fantasy points per game against the Raiders, 7.4 more than the league average. Only the Cardinals are worse.
Normally, if a defense is bad at stopping QBs, they also aren’t great at holding wide receivers or tight ends in check, and the Raiders are no exception. They give up the sixth-most points to receivers and third-most to tight ends.
You know to start Kenny Golladay, but this is also a great week to get Marvin Jones or Danny Amendola in your lineup. If you have T.J. Hockenson, this is a week you can use him. And for Stafford, get him in the lineup ahead of everyone outside of Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and maybe Dak Prescott.
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