Canelo Alvarez and Sergey Kovalev lock horns in the light heavyweight title fight at MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas Saturday, with the card kicking off at 9 p.m. ET.
The middleweight champion Canelo has moved up two weight divisions to take on this challenge. He puts his 52-1-3 record on the line against Kovalev, who is much bigger and a three-time division champion. A win in this bout would mean he would become just the fourth boxer to win titles at the junior middleweight and light heavyweight levels, a difference of 21 pounds, joining Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas ‘Hit Man’ Hearns and Mike McCallum as the only boxers to accomplish the feat.
For Kovalev, he is now 36 years old, and he puts an impressive 34-3-1 record with 29 knockouts on the line. He is, and always has been, a light heavyweight, so he knows what it takes to win at this level. The biggest concern in this one isn’t the opponent (well, it is, too), but the refractory period for Kovalev and his body after he just fought an 11-round battle against Anthony Yarde in August. It’s a quick turnaround for a boxer getting up there in age. He did take a full three weeks off after the fight, however, and his trainer considers it a non-issue.
Per BetMGM, Canelo ( -400) is a heavy favorite over Kovalev ( +275). The oddsmakers like the fight to end in Canelo’s favor in the neighborhood of Rounds 5 through 10 (+1600), with a Round 1 victory fetching the largest payday at (+5000). Don’t be foolish and select that, as Canelo will take a bit to get his sea legs and adjust to a seasoned opponent at a new weight class.
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If you’re feeling Canelo for the KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ victory, BetMGM has him listed at +175, with a win on points at +100 looking rather tempting. If you feel the fight will go 12 rounds, you’ll need to risk (-167), while a fight shorter than 12 rounds (+120) is a little more profitable.
Are you new to sports betting? A $10 wager on Canelo straight up at -400 to win outright pays just a $3.75 profit. Unless you do the boosted BetMGM odds for new customers, where a $1 bet on Canelo wins $200 in free bets with a victory.
Canelo faces a big challenge moving up two weight classes, and the weight of the world on his shoulders with such a historic match. However, he will be facing a good, not great, fighter, and that is in his favor. A few years ago and this bout might have been a coin flip, but Kovalev has a lot of mileage on his odometer.
You can also consider taking Canelo (-400) on the 2-way fight result line, although you have to eat a lot of chalk as a result. In addition, roll the dice with Canelo (+500) winning in Rounds 9-12, under the Round Group Betting 2 area. In addition, a selection of Canelo (+175) by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ can net you a nice little profit with a win in between Rounds 9-12, recouping some of the money risked on the 2-way line.
If you want some action on this title bout or other boxing matches, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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