In today’s round of Madman Trivia, identify this NFL player: As of Monday, I have scored the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. I have ranked in the top 13 fantasy quarterbacks every week my team has played, except for one. I have been in the top 10 seven times in 10 games. Three times this season I have finished in the top three. I have scored at least 20 fantasy points in all but two games. I am third in passing touchdowns and lead the league in passing yards. Who am I?
If you answered Dak Prescott, you win. Prescott has been among the best and most consistent fantasy performers all season, with just one truly bad game on his ledger — a Week 4 dud against the Saints. Sunday, he had his best fantasy game since Week 1, throwing for 444 yards and three touchdowns in a win at Detroit, good for 31.6 fantasy points.
What better time to trade him, right? No, really, now is the time to trade him. Consider the factors: His value is as high as it has been all season, coming off the big game. He has six straight solid fantasy outings. And he showed this week he can deliver a blockbuster fantasy game without relying on top receiver Amari Cooper, instead delivering 100-yard games to both Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb.
You might argue these are all reasons to keep him. Sure. But, we would counter: Maximizing trade value is about dealing players when they’re hot, anticipating a drop-off in performance. And a Dak drop is coming.
In fact, it will start this week. The Cowboys face the Patriots on Sunday. New England allows an average of 9.1 fewer fantasy points each week to quarterbacks than the league average. Take a moment to consider how large that number is. They give up an average of 7.4, so it takes more than two combined fantasy games by opposing QBs to meet the league average for one game.
Of course, you can find a one-week fill-in for virtually any QB. One bad matchup isn’t enough to stoke trade thoughts. But it doesn’t end with the Patriots, they are just the most difficult hurdle. Ensuing weeks include the Bills, who rank as the fourth-stingiest defense against opposing QBs. After that, in the cold of Chicago, and a Bears defense that ranks in the top 10 against fantasy QBs and have allowed the third-fewest TD passes.
How difficult is his schedule? Of all the remaining schedules, the only QB with a harder trek than Prescott the rest of the way is Patrick Mahomes. To compare, he has built his strong season while facing a schedule that ranks in the middle of the pack in difficulty.
So to recap: Prescott has been remarkably reliable, making him valuable. That reliability is likely to fade, making him expendable. Valuable and expendable together create a perfect trade union. And your league’s trade deadline likely is this week, so there is no time to waste.
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