The 2019 NFL season was the year of the road team. Road teams covered more than 56% of the time, the best mark in any season in the Super Bowl era. Road underdogs covered nearly 58% of the time, the third-best mark in that span.
As we look forward to wild-card weekend, recent trends support road teams. The past two seasons, road teams covered all eight wild-card games while going 5-3 outright, despite being underdogs in all eight games. The under has also been profitable in recent years, going 20-8 in wild-card games since 2012.
This week, Kirk Cousins looks to exorcise his demons against elite teams, New England faces its longest Super Bowl odds of any point this decade, and Philadelphia hopes to continue its success as a postseason home underdog.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3, 43.5), 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday
• Buffalo has lost five straight playoff games outright, with its most recent win coming in a 1995 wild-card game. However, the only time Buffalo made the playoffs this century, it covered an 8.5-point spread against Jacksonville in a 2017 wild-card game, losing by seven.
• The under is 14-3 when Josh Allen is an underdog. The under is also 14-3 in Buffalo games the past two seasons in which the total is in the 40s.
• Allen is 10-6-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, with one of the non-covers coming last week against the Jets, when he was pulled from the game in the first quarter.
• Houston is 1-3 ATS and outright in the playoffs under Bill O’Brien.
• Houston is 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5, 44.5), 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday
• New England is 18-1 to win the Super Bowl and was as long as 20-1 earlier in the week. Those are the longest odds New England has had to win at any point this decade and the longest odds entering the playoffs that Bill Belichick/Tom Brady have ever had.
• The only time Mike Vrabel faced New England, Tennessee won 34-10 in Week 10 last season as a 6.5-point underdog.
• New England is 2-4 ATS this season against teams that finished with winning records.
• New England is 44-21 ATS in the Brady/Belichick era following a loss (including playoffs). However, it is 4-4 ATS the past two seasons in that spot.
• New England has won nine straight home playoff games since 2013, going 7-2 ATS in that span. Seven of the nine games went over the total.
• Tennessee is 6-3-1 ATS in Ryan Tannehill’s starts, with 10 of the 11 games going over the total, including all four road games.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 49.5), 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday
• Kirk Cousins is 0-15 in his career against teams that finished with at least 12 wins, going 1-13-1 ATS. He is also 0-9-1 ATS in Minnesota against teams that finished with at least 10 wins (nine straight non-covers).
• Since Week 3, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS, the best record in the league.
• Since 2012, there have been seven wild-card games with spreads of at least seven points. All seven games went under the total, and 10 of the 11 games with spreads of at least six went under the total.
• New Orleans has covered four of these teams’ past five meetings (including playoffs), including going 3-1 ATS against Mike Zimmer.
• Each of New Orleans’ past seven playoff games has been decided by eight points or fewer, and New Orleans has not won a playoff game by more than six points since a 2011 wild-card game against Detroit (won by 17).
• New Orleans is 6-1 outright but only 2-5 ATS in home playoff games in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era.
• Minnesota is 7-15 ATS in road playoff games since the merger.
• Minnesota has not been a more than seven-point underdog since it acquired Cousins last season. Its largest point spread as an underdog this season came last week, when it was a 4.5-point home underdog with Sean Mannion starting at quarterback. Its largest spread with Cousins at quarterback this season was 3.5 points (Week 10 at Dallas).
• Six of Minnesota’s past eight games went over the total. Five of New Orleans’ past seven games went over the total.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. ET Sunday
• Philadelphia is the first home underdog in the wild-card round since 2015, when three of the four home teams were underdogs. In this decade, the only home underdogs to win in the wild-card round were Denver in 2011 against Pittsburgh and Seattle in 2010 against New Orleans.
• Under the current playoff format (since 1990), a 9-7 or worse team has hosted an 11-5 or better team eight times in the wild-card round. The home team went 6-2 in those games (6-1-1 ATS) despite being the underdog in six of those games.
• Philadelphia is 5-0 outright as a home underdog in the postseason in the Super Bowl era (2-0 under Doug Pederson). All but one of the wins were by at least 13 points. Pederson is 8-4 (.667) in his career (including playoffs) when listed as a home underdog. That’s tied with Payton for the best win percentage in the Super Bowl era (minimum 10 games).
• Since 2001, Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS as a postseason underdog (6-5 outright), including 5-0 ATS and 4-1 outright under Pederson.
• Seattle is 10-4-2 ATS the past two seasons when the line is between +3 and -3.
• Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its past 14 road games, dating to last season.
• Russell Wilson is 4-0 outright and ATS in his career against Philadelphia, including a 17-9 road win as a 1.5-point favorite in Week 12. Overall, Seattle has won and covered five straight meetings in Philadelphia.
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