David Lloyd believes New Zealand’s bowling attack makes them favourites for the two-Test series against England.
The Black Caps’ pace line-up will once again be led by Tim Southee and Trent Boult, who combined to skittle England for 58 in Auckland in 2018.
New Zealand could also hand a Test debut to Lockie Ferguson – who took 21 wickets during this summer’s World Cup – with the seamer saying he can give England “anxiety” with his express speed.
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“At home, I think New Zealand just edge it. They are a jolly good team,” Sky Sports expert Lloyd said ahead of the first Test in Mount Maunganui, which is live on Sky Sports Cricket from 9pm on Wednesday.
“Jofra Archer is the x-factor for England and will disturb the very best batsmen but [New Zealand’s] bowling attack is stronger than England’s, in my opinion.
“It’s no bad thing for England to be second favourites as they seem to like being underdogs.”
England have failed to win a Test on their last two trips to New Zealand – losing a two-match series 1-0 last year having drawn all three matches on their previous visit in 2013.
Joe Root’s side 2019-20 winter also includes four Tests in South Africa and two in Sri Lanka – but Michael Atherton feels the clashes with the Kiwis will be their sternest challenge.
The former England captain is also pleased Dom Sibley and Ollie Pope – poised to open with Rory Burns and bat at No 6 respectively – have been selected as England look to construct a side capable of regaining the Ashes in Australia in 2021-22.
“You’d probably say the two Tests in New Zealand will be the toughest of the three assignments,” said Atherton, with the Black Caps second in the Test rankings, one spot above England.
“New Zealand are a very good team these days, have some high-class cricketers and are tough to beat at home.”
On how England’s Test methods may differ under new head coach Chris Silverwood, Atherton said: “There has been a change of message and that message is ‘we want to bat long, bat in traditional Test-match fashion’.
“[Previous coach Trevor] Bayliss was always ‘we want to put pressure on, take the game to the opposition’, so it is a subtle change of message from the coach and captain.
“Sibley is an unusual batsman to look at in that he is open-chested, very leg-side dominant and looks to leave the ball outside off stump.
“It’s an odd-looking combination with Burns, two players who are not necessarily easy on the eye, but ultimately it’s about the runs you get and Sibley demands inclusion with the runs he has got.
“There are 20-odd Tests until England go down to Australia and while everything can’t revolve around the Ashes – other series are important and there is the World Test Championship – there has to be a point where you start to develop young players to give them enough games.
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