The Atlanta Braves (90-56) and Philadelphia Phillies (75-69) play their third of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The two clubs split the first two games of the series with the Braves holding a 12-8 advantage in total runs.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Dallas Keuchel vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Keuchel enters play with a 3.47 ERA on the season with 7.25 strikeouts per nine against 2.88 walks and 1.19 home runs allowed. He’s stranding 81.7% of all base runners, while inducing a ground ball on 61.3% of balls in play. Last outing: Keuchel tossed six scoreless innings for a fourth consecutive win. He has struck out just three in each of his last two outings after recording seven K’s in his three previous outings.
Eflin is 0-2 against the NL East rivals this season with 12 earned runs allowed over 5 2/3 innings. He has pitched to a 5.63 ERA in the second half and his strikeout rate has dropped to a pedestrian 6.53 batters per nine. Last outing: Eflin allowed a homer and two earned runs over five innings against the New York Mets. He struck out six for his highest single-game total since June 19.
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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: By the Numbers
- The season series is tied 7-7. Tuesday was the first of the last nine games dating back to June 15 to be decided by a single run.
- The last six games in the head-to-head series have gone 5-0-1 against the over/under on totals ranging from nine to 10.5 runs.
- Braves hitters lead baseball in home runs hit in the seventh inning and beyond this season. The Phillies’ bullpen has the league’s second-highest home run rate at 1.72 allowed per nine innings.
- Both clubs have leaned slightly to the under over their respective last 10 games, with the Braves going 3-6-1 against the number and the Phillies going 4-5-1.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Picks and Betting Tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; for a full-set of today’s sports betting odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Moneyline: The Braves are a strong pick at -143 with the advantage in the starting pitching matchup and against a weak Phillies bullpen.
Run line: The struggling Phillies bullpen makes the Braves’ +110 odds to cover -1.5 runs and win by two or more a value play with the chance to blow it open late.
Over/under: Back the OVER (9.5, -115) to follow the series trend and count on the Braves to take care of most of the heavy lifting.
Get some action in this one by placing a bet at BetMGM.
Esten’s September record: 24-14
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