The Andrews government has always been bloody good at politics.

This should not minimise its obvious successes, but is simply an acknowledgment of its tactical skills at delivering reforms and mastering the art of manipulation.

From the premier down, it has mastered the art of trivialising questions of accountability, selling its message and understanding what makes voters tick (even if such research is paid for by the taxpayer). It’s proven to be a potent combination that has left the opposition for dead.

The Andrews government is strong on tactics and manipulation.Credit:Luis Enrique Ascui

So, with an election behind it, and a devastating coronial report slamming the state’s bail laws after the death in custody of Veronica Nelson, the premier’s office has finally given the green light to act on long-overdue justice reforms. This has been an area where the government has long opted for the safety of populism at the expense of its progressive values.

Free from the shackles of community outrage over a high-profile bail breach, and with three and a half years until the next election, the government knows this is the safest time to admit it went too far in 2018 and to attempt to undo the overreach.

This underlines the importance of timing in politics. The Andrews government has long known the harm of its 2018 changes, which were having a disproportionate impact on First Nations people.

As Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes told this masthead last week, “it didn’t take the inquest for me to be aware of these issues”. In fact, she said she’d been working on them for some time. But only now is she choosing to act.

Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes says she was aware of problems with the bail laws before the coroner’s report.Credit:Penny Stephens

This may sound like a criticism, but on the contrary, it’s a recognition, however depressing, that justice reform is tricky business. It is rarely evidence-based and perhaps more than any other portfolio, susceptible to emotive policy responses.

While some Labor MPs remain nervous about reforms opening the government up to allegations it’s soft on crime, cabinet has given the nod to tinkering with the Bail Act before the winter break.

It's proposing that only the most serious offenders will be subject to the reverse onus test. This controversial change, which the Andrews government introduced five years ago, forces the accused to prove they won’t be a risk to the community instead of police having to make the case for bail to be denied.

While happy to see some movement on justice reform, senior legal figures remain unconvinced that the changes will work and insist the presumption must favour bail for all offences, with the courts given full discretion to determine the risks to public safety.

Justice reform can be difficult and subject to emotive policy responses.Credit:Louie Douvis

There is also scepticism about the government’s appetite to negotiate after stakeholders received consultation papers on Monday night and were given roughly three weeks to respond.

They are convinced the government has already given its drafting instructions for the amendments, suggesting these changes are as far as they are willing to go. This would also fit with the timeline of getting any changes through parliament by the middle of the year.

Importantly, Indigenous legal groups believe the proposal will have a limited impact in reducing the number of First Nations Victorians denied bail. Their concern is that if someone was on parole for shoplifting, then charged with culpable driving, it would make it almost impossible for them to be granted bail.

In this instance, the attorney-general needs to listen to competing interests – the legal fraternity, police, the public, indigenous legal groups – and come up with a political solution.

In short, voters often have little sympathy for those prone to breaking the law, and that carries some weight.

While caucus is somewhat split on the changes, government insiders report there is little appetite from the premier to go any further. Andrews has always favoured control and has proven himself a master of political pragmatism.

Symes is a rising star of the Andrews government, perhaps only limited by her position in the upper house. She must balance the premier’s wishes with the conflicting views of stakeholders.

If she is to be regarded not merely as a talented minister, but as someone who delivers long-lasting justice reform, then she will need to deliver changes that significantly reduce the number of unsentenced people in prisons, while keeping Victorians safe.

In taking on this fight, Symes has promised not to fall into the trap of knee-jerk policy reactions or any predictable claims that these changes will somehow put Victorians at greater risk. To do that, she will have to prove she is not afraid of a certain degree of unpopularity from the public, from her caucus colleagues, from the media, the legal fraternity and maybe even Andrews.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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