The internet is swimming in predictions for what will happen in tonight’s Game of Thrones finale, but we’ve got one that is almost guaranteed to come true: Jon Snow will die.

Yes, sure, Jon Snow has been one of the lead characters in Game of Thrones ever since it began, but as we know, this is a show that’s quite fond of killing off key players, including point-of-view characters who we’ve grown to love. But there are also a number of reasons integral to the plot that require Jon to give up the Ghost (again).

First of all, there’s Daenerys, Jon’s auntie and erstwhile lover. Last week Dany proved just how merciless she has become in her pursuit of absolute power, and we’ve known for some time now that she feels threatened by Jon’s claim to the Iron Throne as Rhaegar Targaryen’s true-born heir. If she’s fully snapped, as last episode’s rampage seemed to demonstrate, then it’s likely we’ll see her try to take out Jon next.

Secondly, there’s that pesky Lord of Light. While the deaths of Beric and Melisandre in “The Long Night” seemed to signal that we’d be hearing no more mystical mumbo-jumbo, they also point to an unresolved part of Jon’s story. The Lord of Light, so the lore says, brings people back from the dead to fulfil a specific purpose. Both Beric and Melisandre fulfilled theirs during the Battle of Winterfell, and then died shortly after.

Jon Snow was resurrected by the Lord of Light after the Night’s Watch mutinied and stabbed him to death, but his ultimate purpose has yet to be revealed. Is it his destiny to kill Dany? To take the throne himself? Unclear. All we know is, once he has completed the task that R’hllor assigned to him, his second life will have run its course.

Third and finally, there’s the fact that Jon sent Ghost away to live with the wildlings beyond the Wall. Not only did this anger Dog Twitter, it might also have been an error in judgment on Jon’s part. Just look at the hell Sansa and Arya went through after they were separated from their direwolves back in season one. Ghost has proven time and time again to be fierce and loyal—in other words, the kind of protector that you might need when going up against a vengeful queen and her army.

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